January 22, 2015 - Clinton, Christie Lead Primary Packs In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Sour On Gov As 2016 Candidate Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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New Jersey voters are staying local in the 2016 White House race, as Gov. Christopher Christie and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from neighboring New York both lead their respective presidential primary fields, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

But the prospect of a Gov. Christie presidential bid is unpopular with Garden State voters, who give Secretary Clinton a 52 - 39 percent lead over Christie in the main event, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Christie leads the Republican primary pack with 24 percent, followed by 2012 standard- bearer Mitt Romney with 18 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 13 percent. No other candidate tops 6 percent and 14 percent are undecided.

Clinton owns the Democratic primary with 65 percent of voters, followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 11 percent and Vice President Joseph Biden with 7 percent. No other candidate tops 3 percent and 11 percent are undecided.

"A year from now, we'll be focused on the first presidential primary in New Hampshire. If New Jersey primary voters were to decide, it would be the Native Son, Gov. Christopher Christie, vs. the Girl Next Door, Hillary Clinton," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Maurice Carroll. "His home-state Republicans give the Gov a primary-election lead over two-time loser Mitt Romney and the other brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

"But the lady from across the Hudson River in Chappaqua continues to dominate presidential predictions in New Jersey. She rules the Democratic roost and leads all the Republicans - easily.

"She has more than 50 percent against every one of the Republicans, including Christie."

Hillary Clinton leads top Republican 2016 White House contenders in New Jersey:
  • 52 - 39 percent over Christie;
  • 53 - 37 percent over Jeb Bush;
  • 54 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
  • 56 - 33 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
  • 53 - 38 percent over Romney.
In the Clinton-Christie matchup, the Democrat leads 60 - 33 percent among women, while the Republican gets 46 percent of men to Clinton's 42 percent.

In the other matchups, Clinton's leads among women range from 30 to 37 percentage points. She leads Huckabee 47 - 40 percent among men, while men are more evenly divided in the other matchups.

New Jersey voters give Clinton a 58 - 37 percent favorability rating, while all the Republicans, especially Christie, get negative or split scores;
  • 42 - 52 percent for Christie;
  • 30 - 31 percent for Bush;
  • 25 - 30 percent for Paul;
  • 25 - 31 percent for Huckabee;
  • 40 - 45 percent for Romney.
"Even on that standard poll question - favorability - Christie is down 10 percentage points. His fellow Republicans don't do much better," Carroll said. "Clinton meanwhile, has a 21-point plus."

A Christie Presidential Bid

Garden State voters have nothing good to say about a Christie run for president, and say 52 - 41 that the 2016 campaign is distracting him from his duties as governor.

He should not run for president, voters say 56 - 40 percent, and he would not make a good president, voters say 57 - 36 percent.

If Christie does run, he should resign, voters say 66 - 31 percent.

From January 15 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,211 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 13%    17%     9%
Carson                6      7      4
Christie             24     26     22
Cruz                  6      8      3
Huckabee              4      4      4
Jindal                2      2      1
Kasich                -      -      1
Paul                  5      6      3
Perry                 1      1      -
Romney               18     13     23
Rubio                 3      2      4
Santorum              -      -      -
Walker                4      6      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -
DK/NA                14      7     22
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 12%    11%    13%
Carson                5      7      3
Christie             13     12     14
Cruz                  4      3      5
Huckabee              5      4      6
Jindal                5      7      1
Kasich                -      -      -
Paul                  6      8      3
Perry                 2      3      2
Romney               19     19     20
Rubio                 8      6     10
Santorum              5      5      5
Walker                6      8      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      6     13
 
 
2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Biden                 7%    11%     5%
Clinton              65     58     68
O'Malley              -      -      -
Sanders               3      4      2
Warren               11     11     11
Webb                  1      1      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2
DK/NA                11     10     11
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Biden                37%    34%    38%
Clinton              14     15     14
O'Malley              2      5      -
Sanders               4      5      3
Warren               23     21     24
Webb                  1      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                19     18     19
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              52%    11%    90%    49%    42%    60%    54%    50%    53%
Christie             39     82      6     37     46     33     37     44     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      2      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      1      5      7      2      7      2      5
DK/NA                 4      1      2      5      4      4      1      3      4
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Oct 01  Aug 06  Feb 20
                     2015    2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              52      50      50      50      49
Christie             39      39      40      42      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       2       3       1
DK/NA                 4       6       6       4       5
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              53%     9%    93%    51%    43%    61%    62%    50%    53%
Bush                 37     86      3     33     43     31     29     39     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      3      1      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      4      5      2      5      3      2
DK/NA                 5      2      2      8      6      5      2      6      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Oct 01  Aug 06
                     2015    2014    2014    2014
 
Clinton              53      53      53      54
Bush                 37      31      32      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       4       4       3
DK/NA                 5       9       9       6
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              54%    10%    93%    53%    44%    63%    52%    53%    56%
Paul                 35     80      2     33     43     28     38     37     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      3      3      1      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      4      3      2      2      2      3
DK/NA                 6      5      4      7      7      5      5      7      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Oct 01  Aug 06
                     2015    2014    2014    2014
 
Clinton              54      55      55      55
Paul                 35      31      31      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       4       3       2
DK/NA                 6       9       9       6
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              56%    13%    94%    57%    47%    64%    62%    56%    55%
Huckabee             33     79      2     27     40     27     26     35     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      4      3      2      3      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      5      4      2      5      3      2
DK/NA                 5      3      2      7      6      5      4      4      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jan 22  Aug 06
                     2015    2014
 
Clinton              56      57
Huckabee             33      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                 5       4
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              53%     6%    95%    51%    43%    62%    58%    52%    53%
Romney               38     88      2     35     45     32     33     40     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      5      5      2      5      2      3
DK/NA                 4      2      1      7      5      4      1      5      4
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Sep 26  Apr 19  Jan 25
                     2015    2014    2007    2007    2007
 
Clinton              53      52      52      50      53
Romney               38      35      33      31      29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3       3       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       5       3       3
DK/NA                 4       6       7      12      13
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            58%    18%    92%    58%    49%    65%    64%    57%    55%
Unfavorable          37     78      6     35     45     30     31     38     39
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      1      6      5      3      5      4      4
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Aug 06  Feb 20  Jun 12  Feb 20  Dec 13
                     2015    2014    2014    2013    2008    2013    2007
 
Favorable            58      58      60      67      51      67      43
Unfavorable          37      35      38      29      45      29      42
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5       1       3       2       3      11
REFUSED               1       2       1       1       2       1       4
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            42%    71%    21%    39%    42%    42%    37%    50%    38%
Unfavorable          52     25     73     53     53     51     58     45     54
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      4      5      3      5      4      3      5
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      2      2      1      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 69% Jan 2013, Feb 2013)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Aug 06  Jul 10  Jun 10  Mar 26  Aug 12
                     2015    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013*   2008
 
Favorable            42      45      47      66      63      69      21
Unfavorable          52      47      47      27      27      22       7
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5       2       3       4       6      69
REFUSED               2       3       3       4       6       4       2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            30%    53%    12%    30%    37%    25%    15%    34%    34%
Unfavorable          31     12     50     29     29     33     24     30     35
Hvn't hrd enough     37     35     35     40     33     41     59     36     29
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Aug 06
                     2015    2014    2014
 
Favorable            30      25      32
Unfavorable          31      35      33
Hvn't hrd enough     37      37      33
REFUSED               1       2       2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            25%    44%     7%    26%    34%    17%    31%    28%    21%
Unfavorable          30     16     46     31     27     33     22     26     36
Hvn't hrd enough     43     39     45     41     37     48     46     45     42
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Aug 06
                     2015    2014    2014
 
Favorable            25      25      31
Unfavorable          30      32      33
Hvn't hrd enough     43      41      34
REFUSED               2       2       2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            25%    55%     6%    21%    32%    19%    13%    26%    30%
Unfavorable          31     11     51     30     32     30     26     25     36
Hvn't hrd enough     43     34     42     47     35     50     59     48     34
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jan 22  Aug 06
                     2015    2014
 
Favorable            25      34
Unfavorable          31      31
Hvn't hrd enough     43      35
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            40%    81%    12%    36%    46%    35%    33%    42%    41%
Unfavorable          45     10     74     46     44     46     52     42     45
Hvn't hrd enough     13      8     12     17      8     17     13     15     12
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      2      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Jan 22  Jan 25
                     2015    2014    2012    2012    2012    2015    2007
 
Favorable            40      36      35      35      39      40      11
Unfavorable          45      48      43      41      37      45      12
Hvn't hrd enough     13      13      19      21      21      13      76
REFUSED               2       3       2       3       3       2       1
 
 
19. Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  36%    61%    19%    32%    39%    34%    31%    44%    33%
No                   57     32     78     59     53     61     58     51     61
DK/NA                 7      7      2      9      8      5     11      4      6
 
TREND: Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Aug 06  Apr 09  Mar 26  Dec 21  Nov 09
                     2015    2014    2014    2014    2013    2010    2010
 
Yes                  36      40      39      35      41      25      24
No                   57      53      55      57      44      63      61
DK/NA                 7       7       6       8      15      13      15
 
 
20. Would you like to see Chris Christie run for President in 2016 or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  40%    54%    29%    40%    43%    37%    37%    47%    36%
No                   56     42     66     57     53     58     61     49     59
DK/NA                 4      5      5      3      4      5      1      4      5
 
TREND: Would you like to see Chris Christie run for President in 2016 or not?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11  Aug 06  Apr 09  Mar 26
                     2015    2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  40      44      46      43      46
No                   56      50      49      52      47
DK/NA                 4       6       5       5       8
 
 
21. If Chris Christie runs for President, which comes closer to your point of view; he should stay in office as Governor because he can still serve effectively while running for President, or he should resign from his job as Governor because he cannot serve effectively while running for president?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Stay in office       31%    54%    17%    27%    37%    26%    25%    36%    31%
Resign               66     45     80     70     60     71     74     61     67
DK/NA                 3      2      2      3      3      3      2      3      2
 
TREND: If Chris Christie runs for President, which comes closer to your point of view; he should stay in office as Governor because he can still serve effectively while running for President, or he should resign from his job as Governor because he cannot serve effectively while running for president?
                     Jan 22  Dec 11
                     2015    2014
 
Stay in office       31      32
Resign               66      62
DK/NA                 3       5
 
 
29. Do you think the 2016 presidential campaign is or is not distracting Chris Christie from his duties as governor?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Distracting          52%    37%    60%    55%    53%    51%    60%    42%    56%
Not distracting      41     59     28     38     41     40     31     52     37
DK/NA                 7      3     12      7      5      9      8      6      7