October 3, 2013 - de Blasio Landslide Buries Lhota In New York City, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Insider For Next Police Commissioner PDF format Public Advocate Bill de Blasio's landslide is picking up speed in the New York City mayoral race and threatens to bury Republican Joseph Lhota 71 - 21 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has 2 percent. There is a small gender gap and a larger racial gap: White voters support de Blasio 55 - 40 percent while black voters back the Democrat 90 - 6 percent, with Hispanic support at 79 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Only 5 percent of voters remain undecided, but 11 percent of voters who name a candidate say there is "good chance" they will change their mind in the next five weeks. Among de Blasio voters, 38 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 49 percent are "somewhat enthusiastic." Among Lhota backers, 26 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 54 percent are "somewhat enthusiastic." By a 69 - 19 percent margin, New York City voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio. Lhota has a negative 26 - 36 percent favorability, with 33 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. For Carrion, 73 percent don't know enough to form an opinion. "These numbers say Public Advocate Bill de Blasio's kids can start arguing over who gets the best bedroom in Gracie Mansion," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The flurry of negative headlines about name changes, the Sandanista visit, the Cuban honeymoon don't seem to have any effect." "It's a new city demographically and de Blasio captures it. His primary-election coalition, with huge support among black and Hispanic voters, holds in this poll taken after primary-day opinions had time to settle in," Carroll added. New York City likely voters say 55 - 26 percent that de Blasio will do a better job than Lhota keeping them safe and say 63 - 18 percent that the Democrat will do a better job improving the public schools. If de Blasio is elected, taxes will go up, 35 percent say, while 7 percent say taxes will go down and 46 percent say they won't change. If Lhota is elected, taxes will go up, 37 percent say, while 4 percent say they will go down and 43 percent say they will stay the same. "There's a note of realism, or cynicism, when voters contemplate taxes. Voters think they'll either go up or stay the same whoever is elected," Carroll said. The police stop and frisk tactic is excessive and harasses innocent people, 51 percent of voters say, while 41 percent say it is an acceptable way to keep the city safe. White voters support stop and frisk 56 - 37 percent while opposition is 67 - 24 percent among black voters and 54 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters. But 62 percent of New York City voters say they want the next police commissioner to come from the ranks of the New York Police Department, while 24 percent want a "fresh face" from outside the NYPD. There is general agreement among men, women, black, white and Hispanic voters on this question. "Stop and frisk remains a racially divisive issue. But, if voters think that practice means the cops misbehave, everyone, white, black and Hispanic, still would like the next commissioner to be an NYPD veteran," Carroll said. From September 25 - October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,198 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio 71% 9% 87% 61% 67% 75% 55% 90% 79% Lhota 21 79 8 30 25 17 40 6 10 Carrion 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 - 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 5 8 4 6 5 5 3 2 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ de Blasio 68% 74% 77% 72% 65% 79% 74% 68% Lhota 25 18 14 20 31 13 20 25 Carrion 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - - 1 - DK/NA 5 6 6 6 3 5 4 4 STOP AND FRISK Q12 Excssv Accptbl de Blasio 87% 52% Lhota 6 41 Carrion 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - DK/NA 4 5 TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 de Blasio 71 66 Lhota 21 25 Carrion 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 5 6 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY VOTERS............... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Lhota deBlasio Def vote for cand 77% 70% 79% Unlikely to change 10 9 11 Good chance change 11 19 8 DK/NA 2 2 2 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY VOTERS............... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Lhota deBlasio Very enthusiastic 35% 26% 38% Somewht enthusiastic 50 54 49 Not so enthusiastic 9 15 8 Not enthus at all 4 4 4 DK/NA 2 1 2 2. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 69% 23% 81% 57% 68% 69% 55% 86% 70% Unfavorable 19 65 8 28 22 15 34 3 12 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 10 14 8 14 10 10 17 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Favorable 69 63 Unfavorable 19 21 Hvn't hrd enough 11 14 REFUSED 2 2 3. Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 26% 77% 15% 35% 34% 19% 43% 8% 14% Unfavorable 36 6 43 34 37 35 33 45 31 Hvn't hrd enough 33 17 38 27 25 40 22 43 45 REFUSED 4 - 4 4 3 6 3 5 9 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Favorable 26 30 Unfavorable 36 35 Hvn't hrd enough 33 32 REFUSED 4 3 4. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 10% 6% 12% 8% 11% 10% 6% 14% 19% Unfavorable 14 19 14 14 17 12 11 17 10 Hvn't hrd enough 73 75 72 77 69 76 81 66 66 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 3 2 2 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Favorable 10 9 Unfavorable 14 10 Hvn't hrd enough 73 78 REFUSED 2 3 5. Do you think Bill de Blasio is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Liberal 27% 76% 14% 43% 34% 21% 45% 7% 16% Conservative 2 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 3 About right 61 13 76 45 56 66 45 84 64 DK/NA 10 11 8 10 6 13 8 7 16 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Liberal 34% 21% 17% 27% 41% 21% 25% 30% Conservative 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 About right 58 64 68 63 55 69 66 58 DK/NA 6 13 12 8 3 8 6 11 6. Do you think Joe Lhota is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Liberal 5% 5% 6% 3% 5% 5% 3% 8% 7% Conservative 39 12 43 40 43 35 37 42 30 About right 27 70 17 37 31 24 42 15 14 DK/NA 29 13 34 20 21 36 17 36 49 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Liberal 2% 8% 8% 5% 2% 6% 6% 5% Conservative 48 30 29 45 50 33 44 39 About right 29 25 24 27 32 29 22 30 DK/NA 20 37 39 23 16 31 28 26 7. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job - keeping you and your family safe? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio 55% 8% 69% 37% 51% 58% 36% 80% 62% Lhota 26 78 13 41 31 22 44 9 15 DK/NA 19 14 18 22 18 20 19 11 22 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ de Blasio 50% 59% 61% 55% 47% 68% 57% 51% Lhota 32 21 19 28 36 20 25 30 DK/NA 18 20 20 18 17 13 18 19 TREND: Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job keeping you and your family safe? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 de Blasio 55 50 Lhota 26 27 DK/NA 19 23 8. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job - improving the public schools? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio 63% 9% 78% 51% 59% 66% 47% 84% 69% Lhota 18 67 8 24 23 14 31 6 11 DK/NA 19 24 14 25 18 20 21 10 20 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... HvKids Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ InPubSch de Blasio 63% 63% 67% 65% 61% 73% 68% 58% 70% Lhota 19 17 16 17 24 10 17 22 11 DK/NA 18 19 17 18 16 17 15 20 19 TREND: Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job improving the public schools? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 de Blasio 63 61 Lhota 18 17 DK/NA 19 21 9. If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Go up 35% 73% 23% 50% 40% 30% 47% 21% 25% Go down 7 - 9 3 7 7 2 8 15 Stay about the same 46 16 53 40 44 47 41 57 41 DK/NA 13 11 15 7 10 16 10 13 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Go up 41% 29% 25% 35% 49% 26% 34% 37% Go down 4 10 12 4 3 15 6 5 Stay about the same 47 45 48 52 41 47 49 44 DK/NA 9 17 14 9 8 11 10 14 TREND: If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Go up 35 36 Go down 7 6 Stay about the same 46 46 DK/NA 13 11 10. If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Go up 37% 14% 42% 33% 35% 38% 24% 51% 40% Go down 4 8 3 8 6 3 4 7 2 Stay about the same 43 65 38 51 48 39 59 27 30 DK/NA 16 12 18 8 12 19 13 15 27 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Go up 30% 42% 40% 41% 31% 33% 41% 34% Go down 2 6 6 2 6 7 4 4 Stay about the same 55 32 34 44 56 49 41 45 DK/NA 12 19 20 13 7 11 15 17 TREND: If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Go up 37 36 Go down 4 5 Stay about the same 43 44 DK/NA 16 15 11. Do you think the next police commissioner should: A) Come from the ranks of the New York City Police Department, or B) Be a fresh face from outside the New York City Police Department? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A) From NYPD ranks 62% 86% 59% 60% 62% 62% 63% 59% 65% B) Outside NYPD 24 6 26 28 25 23 18 32 24 DK/NA 14 8 15 12 14 15 19 9 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ A) From NYPD ranks 58% 65% 60% 69% 59% 59% 67% 59% B) Outside NYPD 24 24 28 21 23 38 22 22 DK/NA 18 11 12 10 18 4 11 19 STOP AND FRISK Q12 Excssv Accptbl A) From NYPD ranks 51% 77% B) Outside NYPD 33 12 DK/NA 16 11 12. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Excessive 51% 12% 59% 44% 48% 53% 37% 67% 54% Acceptable 41 82 32 48 45 38 56 24 36 DK/NA 8 6 9 8 8 9 7 10 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Excessive 53% 49% 51% 54% 49% 61% 58% 43% Acceptable 40 42 39 40 46 30 37 48 DK/NA 7 9 11 6 5 9 6 9 TREND: As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Excessive 51 55 Acceptable 41 39 DK/NA 8 6 Demographic Summary
