October 8, 2014 - Women Give Gov. Cuomo Big Lead In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; DiNapoli Outscores Schneiderman Against GOP Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A 32 percentage point lead among women propels New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to a 51 - 31 percent lead over Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, the Republican challenger, with 9 percent for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

With Hawkins out of the race, Gov. Cuomo leads Astorino 55 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.

In the three-way matchup, women back Cuomo over Astorino 57 - 25 percent, with 8 percent for Hawkins. Men support Cuomo over Astorino by a slight 44 - 39 percent, with 10 percent for Hawkins. Cuomo leads Astorino 80 - 4 percent among Democrats, with 8 percent for Hawkins, and 43 - 33 percent among independent voters, with 15 percent for Hawkins. Republicans back Astorino over Cuomo 73 - 20 percent, with one percent for Hawkins.

Four weeks before Election Day, 68 percent of voters say their mind is made up, but 29 percent say they might change their mind. Among Astorino voters, 24 percent say they might change their mind, compared to 29 percent of Cuomo voters and 53 percent of Hawkins voters.

"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo got a head start on the Quinnipiac University poll with his weekend campaign bus ride touting women's issues. A monster lead among women voters powers him past Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"It ain't over 'til it's over, but more than two-thirds of voters say their minds are made up."

By a 50 - 39 percent margin, New York State likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo. Astorino gets a split score, with 27 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable.

Hawkins remains largely unknown as 86 percent of likely voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Attorney General, Comptroller Races

State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman leads John Cahill, the Republican challenger, 46 - 34 percent. Women back the Democrat 48 - 28 percent. Men go 45 percent for Schneiderman and 42 percent for Cahill.

Schneiderman leads 75 - 8 percent among Democrats and 44 - 33 percent among independent voters, while Republicans go to Cahill 78 - 6 percent.

State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli leads Republican challenger Bob Antonacci 56 - 28 percent, putting him comfortably over the 50 percent mark. There is almost no gender gap as the Democrat leads 55 - 26 percent among women and 56 - 30 percent among men.

DiNapoli leads 81 - 6 percent among Democrats and 55 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Republicans go to Antonacci 69 - 21 percent.

"You can color New York Democratic blue and throw away the crayons," Carroll said. "Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli both have solid leads. Normally, the attorney general has a higher profile than the comptroller, but DiNapoli has the best lead of any of the three top Democrats.

"Is that a reflection on him or on his Republican challenger, Bob Antonacci?"

From October 1 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,153 New York State likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat, Rob Astorino the Republican, and Howie Hawkins the Green Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo, Astorino, or Hawkins? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                51%    20%    80%    43%    44%    57%
Astorino             31     73      4     33     39     25
Hawkins               9      1      8     15     10      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      2      1
DK/NA                 8      6      7      8      5      9
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Cuomo Astorino Hawkins
 
Mind made up         68%    68%    75%    43%
Might change         29     29     24     53
DK/NA                 3      4      -      4
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HAWKINS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HAWKINS............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                55%    20%    84%    50%    48%    60%
Astorino             34     73      5     38     42     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      3      2      3      2
DK/NA                 9      6      8     10      7     11
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%    30%    71%    45%    43%    56%
Unfavorable          39     62     15     47     49     31
Hvn't hrd enough      8      5     10      6      6      9
REFUSED               3      3      4      2      2      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rob Astorino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            27%    58%     5%    28%    39%    17%
Unfavorable          29     12     39     29     24     32
Hvn't hrd enough     43     28     54     41     35     49
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      2      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Howie Hawkins favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             7%     3%     6%    12%    11%     4%
Unfavorable           5      5      4      3      8      3
Hvn't hrd enough     86     90     88     85     80     92
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
6. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Eric Schneiderman the Democrat and John Cahill the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schneiderman or Cahill? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Schneiderman         46%     6%    75%    44%    45%    48%
Cahill               34     78      8     33     42     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      1      1
DK/NA                18     14     17     21     12     23
 
 
7. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas DiNapoli the Democrat and Bob Antonacci the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for DiNapoli or Antonacci? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
DiNapoli             56%    21%    81%    55%    56%    55%
Antonacci            28     69      6     25     30     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      2      -
DK/NA                16      9     13     19     12     18
 
 

Demographic Summary