October 1, 2014 - Kasich Stomps Fitzgerald In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Know Little About Dem Challenger Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Ohio Gov. John Kasich leads Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald 57 - 35 percent among likely voters, as the challenger still is largely unknown among voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The Republican governor even gets 25 percent of Democratic voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

Men back the incumbent 62 - 31 percent, with women for Kasich 52 - 39 percent. Kasich leads 89 - 7 percent among Republicans and 59 - 29 percent among independent voters while Democrats go to FitzGerald by a lackluster 71 - 25 percent.

With five weeks until Election Day, 78 percent of voters say their mind is made up and 22 percent say they still might change their mind.

"Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who hit some bumps in the road early in his first term, looks like he's on a freeway to an easy reelection victory," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Not only is Gov. Kasich getting a healthy share of Democrats, but he also has a double- digit lead among women, something almost unheard of in this era of the gender gap."

"If Kasich wins by 20 points or more, it will be difficult for any of the under ticket Democrats to survive," Brown added. "The Ed FitzGerald campaign, for which Democrats once had high hopes, could turn out to be a disaster for the party as well as for FitzGerald."

Kasich gets a 54 - 30 percent favorability rating from Ohio likely voters. FitzGerald gets a negative 21 - 29 percent favorability with 48 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

The governor is ahead on key characteristics:
  • Voters say 56 - 28 percent Kasich is honest and trustworthy. FitzGerald gets a negative 26 - 33 percent honesty score, with 41 percent undecided;
  • The governor cares about their needs and problems, voters say 55 - 34 percent, compared to FitzGerald's 41 - 23 percent rating, with 36 percent undecided;
  • Kasich has strong leadership qualities, voters say 70 - 21 percent, compared to the Democrat's 32 - 28 percent leadership score, with 39 percent undecided.
From September 24 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 999 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed FitzGerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for FitzGerald or Kasich? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
FitzGerald           35%     7%    71%    29%    31%    39%
Kasich               57     89     25     59     62     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      2      2      1
DK/NA                 7      3      5     10      5      8
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    FitzGerald    Kasich
 
Mind made up         78%    81%           75%
Might change         22     18            24
DK/NA                 1      1             -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Ed FitzGerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            21%     5%    37%    22%    17%    24%
Unfavorable          29     44     16     29     33     25
Hvn't hrd enough     48     50     44     48     46     50
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      4      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            54%    77%    33%    54%    55%    52%
Unfavorable          30      9     50     31     28     32
Hvn't hrd enough     13      9     17     13     13     13
REFUSED               3      5      1      3      4      3
 
 
4. Would you say that John Kasich - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  56%    79%    39%    49%    57%    55%
No                   28      8     42     35     27     29
DK/NA                16     13     19     16     16     16
 
 
5. Would you say that John Kasich - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  55%    78%    36%    53%    56%    54%
No                   34     12     52     37     33     36
DK/NA                11     11     12     10     12     10
 
 
6. Would you say that John Kasich - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  70%    85%    51%    73%    69%    71%
No                   21      5     35     22     21     21
DK/NA                 9      9     14      6     10      9
 
 
7. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  26%    13%    41%    26%    24%    29%
No                   33     35     27     39     39     27
DK/NA                41     52     32     35     37     44
 
 
8. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  41%    21%    61%    42%    40%    43%
No                   23     32     10     27     26     19
DK/NA                36     47     29     31     34     38
 
 
9. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  32%    16%    48%    34%    29%    36%
No                   28     40     17     30     33     23
DK/NA                39     45     36     37     38     41
 
 

Demographic Summary