February 23, 2016 - Trump Tops Native Son Kasich Among Ohio Republicans, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Leads Sanders By 15 Points Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Not even native son Gov. John Kasich can stop the Donald Trump steamroller as Kasich falls behind the Republican front-runner 31 - 26 percent among Ohio likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is at 21 percent with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent and Dr. Ben Carson at 5 percent.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 55 - 40 percent among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Five percent of Republicans remain undecided and 38 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the March 15 primary.

On the negative side, 32 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they "would definitely not support" Trump for the nomination, with 22 percent saying no to Cruz.

Trump tops Kasich 35 - 26 percent among men, with 23 percent for Cruz and 9 percent for Rubio. Women are divided, with 27 percent for Trump and 26 percent for Kasich, 19 percent for Cruz and 17 percent for Rubio.

"The Donald Trump train begins the three-week campaign for Ohio's crucial delegates on the right track and holds a small lead over the Buckeye State's own governor, John Kasich," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"A Kasich Ohio win is crucial to the Republicans trying to stop the New York businessman's nomination. If Trump can defeat Kasich in his home state, that would be an impressive demonstration of his strength in a state that is just now getting attention. But Trump's lead is just 5 points, certainly not large enough for him to breathe easy."

"Also impressive for Trump is that 78 percent of his supporters say their mind is made up, higher than supporters of other GOP candidates, especially Kasich. Yet Trump's favorability ratings are lower than the other GOP candidates," Brown added.

"Former Secretary Hillary Clinton has a solid double-digit lead over Sen. Sanders, but anything can happen in three weeks of presidential politics."

Kasich has the best favorability rating, 77 - 14 percent, among Ohio likely Republican primary voters. Rubio has a 62 - 17 percent favorability, with Cruz at 60 - 27 percent and Trump at 57 - 36 percent.

Clinton - Sanders

The gender gap which marks the Clinton-Sanders face-off in other states shrinks among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters as men back Clinton 54 - 44 percent while women back her 56 - 37 percent.

Five percent of Democrats remain undecided, while 29 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next three weeks.

Clinton and Sanders have almost identical favorability ratings, 77 - 17 percent for her and 77 - 11 percent for him.

From February 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 759 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 518 Ohio likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Carson                5%     7%     9%     9%     3%     2%     4%     5%     4%     5%
Cruz                 21     34     27     30     18     12     23     19     18     21
Kasich               26     11     19     15     30     34     26     26     35     23
Rubio                13     13     14     16     11     11      9     17     16     11
Trump                31     35     26     27     33     35     35     27     22     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      1      4      3      5      6      3      6      6      4
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Rep    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+
 
Carson                4%     6%     5%     3%     5%
Cruz                 20     20     31     17     16
Kasich               28     27     24     23     32
Rubio                13     13      6     17     15
Trump                30     30     30     35     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      4      4      5      5
 
Matchup includes the second choice of Bush voters
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS......................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Kasich        Trump
 
Made up              60%           62%           50%           78%
Might change         38            36            48            21
DK/NA                 1             2             2             1
 
 
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Carson               11%     8%     7%     9%     9%    16%    13%     9%    15%    10%
Cruz                 22     16     14     18     19     31     26     18     25     21
Kasich               11     13     10     15      7     10     11     11      8     13
Rubio                12     16     10     13     12     13     16      7     10     13
Trump                32     31     34     34     28     33     29     36     42     28
No/No one            24     22     27     25     32     17     24     24     23     25
DK/NA                 4      2      6      4      4      3      3      5      3      4
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Rep    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+
 
Carson               10%    10%     7%    14%    11%
Cruz                 19     31     26     20     19
Kasich                9     11     14     12      6
Rubio                 8     17     14     12      8
Trump                33     34     40     27     33
No/No one            28     19     17     27     30
DK/NA                 5      -      3      4      3
 
 
3. If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              55%    38%    45%    64%    54%    56%    49%    57%
Sanders              40     59     52     29     44     37     44     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      4      6      3      7      7      4
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Dem    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              60%    41%    40%    62%    75%    50%    71%
Sanders              36     55     56     33     18     45     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      4      3      5      7      5      3
 
 
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              70%           71%           68%
Might change         29            28            30
DK/NA                 2             2             2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            77%    77%    63%    81%    76%    77%    81%    75%
Unfavorable          17     23     24     12     20     14     15     17
Hvn't hrd enough      4      -      2      6      3      5      4      3
REFUSED               3      -     10      2      1      5      -      4
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Dem    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            84%    55%    67%    82%    89%    73%    90%
Unfavorable          11     34     23     13      9     21      5
Hvn't hrd enough      4      5      5      4      1      4      5
REFUSED               1      7      5      2      -      3      -
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            77%    92%    90%    67%    81%    74%    89%    72%
Unfavorable          11      6      3     17      7     14      6     13
Hvn't hrd enough     12      2      7     16     11     12      5     14
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Dem    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            79%    76%    85%    72%    68%    76%    74%
Unfavorable          12      6      6     14     19     14      5
Hvn't hrd enough     10     17      9     13     13      9     22
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      -      -      -
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            60%    73%    68%    72%    65%    42%    61%    60%    60%    60%
Unfavorable          27     17     20     18     24     43     28     26     31     27
Hvn't hrd enough     11     10     12      8     11     14      9     14      9     12
REFUSED               1      -      -      2      -      1      2      -      1      1
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Rep    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+
 
Favorable            62%    52%    59%    62%    60%
Unfavorable          25     35     32     26     24
Hvn't hrd enough     11     12      8     11     15
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      1
 
 
19. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            77%    72%    75%    73%    83%    76%    78%    76%    81%    77%
Unfavorable          14     16     16     21      8     14     13     16     12     15
Hvn't hrd enough      7     11      9      5      7     10      7      8      6      7
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      2      1      2      -      1      1
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Rep    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+
 
Favorable            82%    74%    64%    81%    89%
Unfavorable          11     16     19     15      6
Hvn't hrd enough      6      8     15      5      4
REFUSED               1      3      3      -      1
 
 
20. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            62%    62%    63%    69%    63%    55%    59%    66%    72%    59%
Unfavorable          17     20     14     17     17     20     21     13     15     18
Hvn't hrd enough     20     17     22     14     20     25     19     20     13     22
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Rep    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+
 
Favorable            67%    56%    51%    67%    71%
Unfavorable          14     20     26     15      9
Hvn't hrd enough     19     23     23     18     18
REFUSED               -      1      -      -      3
 
 
21. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            57%    59%    54%    59%    59%    54%    61%    53%    46%    62%
Unfavorable          36     35     37     34     35     39     32     41     50     30
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      6      5      4      5      5      4      3      5
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      2      2      2      2      1      3
 
                     PARTYID...    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Rep    Ind    18-44  45-64  65+
 
Favorable            57%    54%    49%    62%    56%
Unfavorable          35     40     46     30     37
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      3      5      5
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      1
 
 

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