October 7, 2014 - Wolf Up 17 Points In Pennsylvania Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gov. Corbett Gaining Little As Time Is Running Out Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Businessman Tom Wolf, the Democratic challenger for governor in Pennsylvania, leads Republican Gov. Tom Corbett 55 - 38 percent among likely voters four weeks before Election Day, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 59 - 35 percent likely voter lead for Wolf in a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's results, Wolf leads 59 - 34 percent among women, 51 - 42 percent among men, 87 - 7 percent among Democrats and 49 - 40 percent among independent voters.

Republicans back Corbett 75 - 22 percent, one of the lowest rates of same-party support for an incumbent governor in any of the nine states surveyed by Quinnipiac University. This compares to a 66 - 28 percent Corbett lead among Republicans September 11.

Their mind is made up, 85 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say, while 13 percent say they might change their mind. There is little difference among supporters for each candidate: 87 percent of Wolf supporters and 83 percent of Corbett backers say their mind is made up.

"With a slight shift in the numbers as a handful of Republicans come back, there is a pinprick of light at the end of the long, dark reelection tunnel, but time is not on Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett's side," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"It's a matter of simple math and the ticking clock and both are working against Gov. Corbett."

By a 52 - 26 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely voters have a favorable opinion of Wolf. He gets positive scores from all listed groups except Republicans who are negative 27 - 47 percent, with 23 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Corbett gets a negative 38 - 49 percent favorability rating, with Republicans the only positive group listed, giving him a 67 - 24 percent favorability. Men are close as 42 percent are favorable and 47 percent are unfavorable.

From September 30 - October 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 907 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Wolf the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Wolf or Corbett? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Wolf                 55%    22%    87%    49%    51%    59%
Corbett              38     75      7     40     42     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      4      2      1
DK/NA                 5      3      5      7      4      6
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Wolf the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Wolf or Corbett? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 07  Sep 11
                     2014    2014
 
Wolf                 55      59
Corbett              38      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2
DK/NA                 5       4
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Wolf   Corbett
 
Mind made up         85%    87%    83%
Might change         13     11     16
DK/NA                 1      2      1
 
TREND:(If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 07  Sep 11
                     2014    2014
 
Mind made up         85      84
Might change         13      15
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Tom Wolf favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            52%    27%    74%    48%    51%    52%
Unfavorable          26     47      4     32     30     22
Hvn't hrd enough     20     23     19     17     16     23
REFUSED               3      2      2      3      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Wolf favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 07  Sep 11
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            52      50
Unfavorable          26      22
Hvn't hrd enough     20      26
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%    67%    13%    39%    42%    33%
Unfavorable          49     24     69     50     47     50
Hvn't hrd enough     10      6     15      8      7     14
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 07  Sep 11
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            38      33
Unfavorable          49      55
Hvn't hrd enough     10      11
REFUSED               3       1
 
 

Demographic Summary