Quinnipiac Poll: An election winner

November 09, 2017

Photo of the outside of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The Quinnipiac Poll demonstrated once again why it’s the most accurate poll in the nation — correctly anticipating the margins of victories in the two gubernatorial elections this week.

The day before Virginia’s gubernatorial election, the poll conducted a likely voter survey showing Democratic candidate Lt. Governor Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie, 51-42, a margin of 9 percentage points. The following day, Northam defeated Gillespie 54-45, also a 9-point margin. While the other 11 polls conducted in Virginia by other organizations indicated that the race would be close — ranging anywhere from a tie to a 6-point difference, Quinnipiac’s was the only to show Northam winning comfortably.

Quinnipiac Poll

The Quinnipiac Poll also surveyed likely voters in New Jersey ahead of the state’s own gubernatorial election. The poll showed Democratic candidate Phil Murphy ahead of Republican candidate Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno in the race, 53-41, a margin of 12 percentage points. The final result was a Murphy victory by 12 points, 55-43. Polls by all other polling organizations in New Jersey indicated that Murphy would win by 14-16 percentage points.

In 25 years of conducting public opinion surveys, the Quinnipiac Poll has established a reputation for accuracy, with large sample sizes, calls to land lines and cell phones by live interviewers and adherence to best polling practices — including random digit dialing. Many of those conducting the surveys are current undergraduate and graduate Quinnipiac students.

The Quinnipiac Poll conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

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