‘Stats Man’ makes MLB predictions

April 10, 2017

Man Speaking in classroom

We are officially one week into in the 2017 Major League Baseball season.

While some teams have charged out of their respective gates and others have stumbled, October is still six long months away. A lot can happen over the course of a 162-game season, and Quinnipiac’s own Dr. Stan Rothman, the Stats Man, offers his prediction on how he thinks the season will play out.

Last year, Rothman,  accurately predicted 5 of 6 division winners, 3 of 4 Wild Card teams, and that the Chicago Cubs, a team that that hadn’t won a World Series since before the Titanic sank, would be world champions — before the season even started.

How did he arrive at these conclusions? By using the following linear formula: Lin W-L% = .000579*(Runs Scored – Runs Allowed) + .50, where Lin W-L% was a team’s expected winning percentage based on their (runs scored — runs allowed). For the 2017 season, Rothman took into account roster additions and subtractions to estimate a new runs scored/runs allowed for each team.

It may or may not surprise many that Rothman sees the Cubs repeating this year.

“The Cubs are easily baseball’s most complete team,” he said. “In 2016, their Lin W-L% was the highest in the majors which allowed them to win 103 games. Look for over 100 wins again in 2017.”

Rothman sees the Cubs atop the NL Central once again, with the Mets and Dodgers winning the East and West. The Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals will take the Wild Card spots.

Which American League opponent does Rothman believe the Cubs will defeat to once again be crowned World Series Champions? The Boston Red Sox.

“I believe the Red Sox are the most improved team in the AL and will improve on their 2016 AL best Lin W-L% of 0.606 increasing their win total to over 95 wins,” Rothman said.

The Red Sox and Indians will once again win their respective divisions, with the Astros and Blue Jays as Wild Card winners. Like last year, Rothman has picked the Mariners to win the AL West, a choice that turned out to be his lone divisional flub.

“Going into the season, The Texas Rangers’ Lin W-L% was only 0.505. The reason for this discrepancy is they won 36 of 47 1-run games. This will not happen again in 2017,” Rothman said.

To view The Stats Man’s eerily accurate 2016 predictions, or to read more about his break down of the 2017 season, visit The Sandlot Stats Blog.

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